The Thrive Performance Marketing Blog

Most lead scoring sucks (here's how we fixed it)

Written by Santana Blanchette | Nov 19, 2025 5:31:01 PM

TL;DR

Most B2B companies are doing lead scoring wrong, relying on arbitrary point systems and outdated models that don't reflect actual buyer behavior. Real lead scoring requires clean data infrastructure, empirical validation, and regular updates. More importantly, it should never be prioritized over fundamentals like product-market fit, messaging, and creative. Lead scoring is an optimization layer, not a solution to broken marketing.

Most B2B organizations say they’re doing lead scoring but so few are doing it well. Most lead scoring systems are built on shaky assumptions, outdated data, and arbitrary numbers that have zero empirical backing.



What lead scoring actually is (and isn't)

At its core, lead scoring is simple: assigning value to leads to make better decisions. Marketing teams use it to optimize budget allocation across channels. Sales teams use it to prioritize outreach. The goal is straightforward: maximize value by focusing resources where they'll have the biggest impact.

The problem starts when companies treat lead scoring like some magic formula that will fix their pipeline problems. It won't. Lead scoring is a measurement tool, not a miracle cure.


Points-based scoring isn’t helpful

Here's where most companies go wrong: they build point-based lead scoring systems. Downloaded an ebook? That's 2 points. Requested a demo? 25 points. These numbers are completely arbitrary. 

These systems might feel directionally correct, but they're just as likely to lead you astray. Making budget decisions or sales prioritization based on made-up numbers is how you end up wasting resources on the wrong channels and ignoring high-value leads.

 

What actually works: empirical models

Real lead scoring requires building models from historical data. Look at all your past leads and their outcomes, then use statistical methods to understand which signals actually correlate with conversions. This approach reveals which signals matter and which are just noise.

The key difference? You're not guessing. You're measuring actual propensity to purchase based on real behavior and firmographic data. A lead might have a 5% probability of converting on a $20,000 product (worth $1,000), while another has a 1% probability (worth $200). That's actionable intelligence.


Data infrastructure: the first step to useful lead scoring

You can't score what you can't measure. Bad data makes any scoring model garbage, and no algorithm can fix that.

Before even thinking about lead scoring, you need:

  • A clean, well-maintained CRM
  • Bidirectional sync between marketing automation and sales systems
  • Reliable tracking of behavioral data
  • Clear feedback loops showing sales outcomes (wins, losses, reasons)

If your CRM is a mess, if you can't track the customer journey reliably, or if there's no connection between marketing actions and sales results, stop. Fix your foundation first. Lead scoring on unreliable data is worse than no lead scoring at all.


The missing 95% of the buyer journey

Here's a sobering stat: roughly 95% of B2B buyers have already done extensive research before they ever visit your site. They've browsed review sites, compared competitors, consumed your content across multiple channels, and potentially assembled an internal buying committee.

Your lead scoring system? It's only seeing that final 5% when someone finally fills out a form.

This is why account-based approaches matter. Individual lead scores miss the bigger picture — multiple stakeholders researching at different times, through different channels. The CFO downloading pricing information has very different implications than a junior analyst doing the same thing.

When lead scoring helps

Lead scoring works when you have:

  • Enough volume (you can't build reliable models on 10 leads per month)
  • Clean historical data (ideally a couple years' worth)
  • A clear hypothesis about what signals matter
  • Regular validation and updates to your model

Most importantly, lead scoring helps when you're already doing the fundamentals well. It won't compensate for poor product-market fit, bad onboarding experiences, weak creative, or unclear messaging. Those factors have exponentially more impact than any scoring system ever will.

Lead scoring is an optimization that lives on top of your marketing program. Master the basics first.


The validation gap

Five-year-old lead scoring models are worthless. Markets shift, products evolve, buying behaviors change. Yet many companies set up a scoring system once and never touch it again.

The solution is straightforward: regular validation and back-testing. Use historical data to test whether your model actually predicts outcomes. Did leads you scored highly convert at higher rates? Are sales consistently rejecting leads you marked as high-value? These gaps signal your model has drifted from reality.

Watch for warning signs like declining conversion rates, high-score/low-win mismatches, and sales teams consistently rejecting your "qualified" leads.


The complexity trap

Lead scoring can get complicated fast. But the hardest part isn't the technical implementation, it's the strategic thinking. What signals actually matter? What hypothesis are you testing? How will you use this data to make decisions?

The technical stuff (building a linear regression model, updating it regularly) is relatively straightforward in 2025. The intellectual work of understanding your buyer journey, identifying meaningful signals, and building defensible hypotheses — that's where the real challenge lies.


What to do instead

If you're not ready for proper lead scoring (and most companies aren't), focus on:

  • Cleaning your CRM data
  • Building reliable tracking and attribution
  • Testing your creative and messaging
  • Understanding your actual buyer journey
  • Creating feedback loops between marketing and sales

These fundamentals will drive more value than any lead scoring system built on shaky ground.

And if you are ready for lead scoring? Start with a clear hypothesis, validate it with historical data, test it rigorously, and update it regularly. Treat it like what it is: one tool in your optimization toolkit, not the answer to your pipeline problems.